For all his vaunted talents, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has never had much of a reputation as an economic forecaster. In fact, he shies away from making the precise-to-the-decimal-point predictions that many other economists thrive on. Instead, he owes his success as a monetary policymaker to his ability to sniff out threats to the economy and manipulate interest rates to dampen the dangers he perceives.

　　Now, those instincts are being put to the test. Many Fed watchers—and some policymakers inside the central bank itself—are beginning to wonder whether Greenspan has lost his touch. Despite rising risks to the economy from a swooning stock market and soaring oil prices that could hamper growth, the Greenspan-led Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) opted to leave interest rates unchanged on Sept.24. But in a rare dissent, two of the Fed’s 12 policymakers broke ranks and voted for a cut in rates—Dallas Fed President Robert D. McTeer Jr. and central bank Governor Edward M.Gramlich.

　　The move by McTeer, the Fed’s self-styled “Lonesome Dove”, was no surprise. But Gramlich’s was. This was the first time that the monetary moderate had voted against the chairman since joining the Fed’s board in 1997. And it was the first public dissent by a governor since 1995.

　　Despite the split vote, it’s too soon to count the maestro of monetary policy out. Greenspan had good reasons for not cutting interest rates now. And by acknowledging in the statement issued after the meeting that the economy does indeed face risks, Greenspan left the door wide open to a rate reduction in the future. Indeed, former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley thinks chances are good that the central bank might even cut rates before its next scheduled meeting on Nov.6, the day after congressional elections.

　　So why didn’t the traditionally risk-averse Greenspan cut rates now as insurance against the dangers dogging growth? For one thing, he still thinks the economy is in recovery mode. Consumer demand remains buoyant and has even been turbocharged recently by a new wave of mortgage refinancing. Economists reckon that homeowners will extract some $100 billion in cash from their houses in the second half of this year. And despite all the corporate gloom, business spending has shown signs of picking up, though not anywhere near as strongly as the Fed would like.

　　Does that mean that further rate cuts are off the table? Hardly. Watch for Greenspan to try to time any rate reductions to when they’ll have the most psychological pop on business and investor confidence. That’s surely no easy feat, but it’s one that Greenspan has shown himself capable of more than once in the past. Don’t be surprised if he surprises everyone again.

　　1. Alan Greenspan owes his reputation much to .

　　A. his successful predictions of economy

　　B. his timely handling of interest rates

　　C. his unusual economic policies

　　D. his unique sense of dangers

　　2. It can be inferred from the passage that .

　　A. instincts most often misguide the monetary policies

　　B. Greenspan has lost his control of the central bank

　　C. consensus is often the case among Fed’s policymakers

　　D. Greenspan wouldnt tolerate such a dissent

　　3. Gramley’s remarks are mentioned to indicate that .

　　A. Greenspan didnt rule out the possibility of a future rate reduction

　　B. Greenspan’s monetary policy may turn out to be a failure

　　C. Greenspan’s refusal to cut rates now was justified

　　D. Greenspan will definitely cut the rates before Nov.6

　　4. From the fifth paragraph, we can learn that .

　　A. economy is now well on its way to recovery

　　B. economists are uncertain about consumer demand

　　C. corporate performance is generally not encouraging

　　D. businesses have been investing the way the Fed hoped

　　5. The author seems to regard Greenspan’s manipulation of interest rates with .

　　A. disapproval B. doubt C. approval D. admiration

　　譯文：

　　美聯儲主席格林斯潘才智卓越，然而他并不是經濟預測大師。實際上，他并不喜歡進行精確的經濟預測，而不少其他經濟學家卻借此發跡。相反，作為一個貨幣政策制定者，格林斯潘的成功是由于他能夠嗅出經濟所面臨的威脅，從而調控利率，消除他所感受到的危險。

　　現在，這些才能正經受著考驗。許多美聯儲的觀察家——包括中央銀行內部的一些政策指定者——都琢磨著格林斯潘是不是已才思不再。盡管經濟面臨著諸多危險，證券低迷，油價飆升，經濟遭阻，但在9月24日，格林斯潘所領導的FOMC卻決定維持利率不變。然而出現了罕見的分歧，美聯儲的12位立法者中有兩人打破慣例，主張降低利率——美聯儲駐達拉斯總裁Robert D.McTeer Jr.及中央銀行總裁Edward M.Gramlich。

　　美聯儲內部自稱“孤獨的鴿子”的Mc Teer的這一舉動不令人吃驚，而Gramlich的舉動令人費解，作為一個貨幣溫和派，這是他自1997年加入美聯儲委員會以來第一次投票反對主席，這也是自1995年以來中行總裁第一次公開表示自己的不同觀點。

　　盡管出現了投票分歧，現在就認為貨幣大師輸了還為時過早，格林斯潘是有充分理由不立即降息的。在會后發表的申明中，格林斯潘承認經濟有危險，這就說明他并沒有將未來降息的可能全部封死。事實上，前美聯儲主席Lyle Gramley就認為，11月6日， 即國會選舉日后一天，中央銀行在下次例行會議上會宣布降息。

　　那么，為什么傳統上反對風險的格林斯潘這次卻不再降息，從而防止緊隨經濟增長而出現的危險呢?首先，他仍然認為經濟處于復蘇之中，消費需求強勁，并隨新一波的抵押投資而進一步加碼。經濟學家認為，在今年的后半年，地產擁有者能從房產中獲得一千億美元的收入。盡管整體經濟灰暗，但商業投資已有回升的跡象，雖然不如美聯儲所希望的那么強勁。

　　這是否意味著進一步的降低利率不再可能?不。注意格林斯潘，他總是選擇對經濟和投資者信心影響最大的時刻宣布降低利率。這絕非易事，而格林斯潘已不止一次做到了這一點，如果他再有驚人之舉，大家不應吃驚。

　　1.【答案】B

　　【解析】這是一道細節題。根據首段末句可知，Greenspan總能借助利率的調整消除他所感覺到的對經濟的威脅，即能在威脅出現之前“及時的”行動。故B為正確答案。

　　2.【答案】C

　　【解析】這是一道推論題。根據第二段末句“ in a rare dissent...”可知，美聯儲的決策者們多數情況下是意見一致的。故C為正確項。

　　3.【答案】A

　　【解析】這是一道例證題。在第四段末尾，作者引用Gramley的評述無非是證明其前面的觀點：Greenspan并沒有將降息的可能完全排除。故A為正確答案，“rule out”意為“排除”。

　　4.【答案】C

　　【解析】這是一道簡單推論題。根據第五段末句“盡管整體經濟很是陰暗……”，可以認定，C項應是正確答案。

　　5.【答案】D

　　【解析】這是一道態度題。根據全文，尤其末段的描述，可見作者對Greenspan的利率操作非常欽佩，故D為正確答案。C項語氣不夠。

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